Boeing has forecast a $4.5 trillion market for
34,000 new airplanes over the next 20 years as the current world
fleet doubles in size, according to the Boeing 2012 Current Market
Outlook (CMO) released on Tuesday.
"The world's aviation market is broader, deeper
and more diverse than we've ever seen it," said Randy Tinseth,
vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "It has
proven to be resilient even during some very challenging years and
is driving production rate increases across the board."
Airline traffic is forecasted to grow at a 5%
annual rate over the next two decades, with cargo traffic
projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2.
The single-aisle market, served by
Boeing's Next-Generation 737 and the future 737 MAX, will continue
its robust growth, while widebodies, such as Boeing's 747-8, 777
787 Dreamliner, as well as competing aircraft such as the A350
and A380, will account for almost $2.5 trillion dollars worth of
new airplane deliveries with 40% of the demand for these
long-range airplanes expected to come from Asian airlines.
New Airplane Deliveries:
Single-aisle: 23,240 $2,030b
Large: 790 $280b
Regional jets: 2,020 $80b
Robust growth in China, India and other emerging
markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the
next 20 years.
Low cost carriers, with their ability to
stimulate traffic with low fares, are growing faster than the
market as a whole. There is also a strong demand to replace older,
less fuel-efficient airplanes. Replacement accounts for 41% of new
deliveries in the forecast.
The market for new airplanes is set to become
more geographically balanced in the next two decades. Asia
Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total
New Airplane Deliveries:
Asia Pacific: 12,030
Latin America: 2,510
Middle East: 2,370
World Total: 34,000
"It's incredible to see just how much air travel
has changed since I took my first flight back in 1977," said
Tinseth. "It has become critical to business and something we do
for pleasure, to connect with family and friends. As the market
continues to grow, especially in emerging economies, air travel
will become affordable to even more people."
Forecast: 2012 to 2031
As the cargo market remains sluggish, Boeing has
revised downward its projection for freighters over the next 20
Still, the world freighter fleet is projected to
nearly double from 1,740 aircraft today to 3,200 at the end of the
Additions to the fleet will include 940
new-production freighters (market value of $250 billion) and 1,820
airplanes converted from passenger models.
Large (more than 88.2 tons capacity / 80
tonnes) freighters will account for 680 new-build airplanes.
Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons / 40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total
260 airplanes. No new standard-body freighters (49.6 tons / less
than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,120
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More to come...
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