New Forecasts - Australian International visitor arrivals down for 2001

New forecasts released today indicate that international visitor arrivals to Australia will decline by 0.4 per cent this year as a result of the terrorist attacks on the US and the collapse of Ansett, Australian Tourist Commission, Managing Director Ken Boundy said today.

Speaking following the release of the revised Tourism Forecasting Council (TFC) forecasts Mr Boundy said the figures indicate a sharp decline in international arrivals in the last quarter of the year, with a slow return to growth in 2002.

“A fall of 0.4 per cent in international visitors for 2001 means 22,000 less visitors to Australia than in 2000,” he said. “At the beginning of the year international visitor arrivals were forecast to grow by around eight per cent and in August they were revised down to 4.5 per cent.

“This would be the first time since the Asian financial crisis in 1998, that inbound tourism to Australia has declined, and the third time in the past two decades.

“As a result of the forecast decline in international visitor arrivals in 2001 export earnings are also expected to fall by $1 billion in 2001/02 compared to previous forecasts.

“In the first eight months of the year, international visitors to Australia had grown by around 4.7 per cent, however the attacks on the US and the collapse of Ansett will result in a drop in international visitors to Australia.

“The impact of the recent events has an immediate impact on our sector and the TFC figures indicate a drop of 260,000 international visitors to Australia in the last three months of the year, compared to what was expected during this quarter,” he said.

“A major concern for the industry is that inbound visitor arrivals to Australia during the first quarter of 2002 will also be significantly down compared to the previous year --which means a very tough six months for our industry.

“Feedback suggests that forward holiday bookings to Australia are down from some tourism regions and as such the March 2002 quarter is expected to be slow for inbound tourism.”

Mr Boundy said the forecasts indicated that the sharpest decline in visitor arrivals was from the US with visitor arrivals expected to fall by 8.9 per cent in 2001.

“This will be the first year since 1992 where visitor arrivals from the US have fallen,” he said. “US visitor arrivals are expected to fall by a massive 40 per cent in the December 2001 quarter compared to the same time last year.

“Visitor arrivals from the US are expected to remain flat next year (0.4 per cent growth), and provided consumer confidence returns and economic conditions improve, visitor arrivals are forecast to return to growth in 2003.

“The ATC has delayed marketing activities in the US, however we are ready to recommence activities in January next year.

Mr Boundy said the recent events had impacted all Australia’s key tourism markets to varying degrees, however all arrival forecasts had been revised.

“Visitor arrivals from Australia’s number one tourism market, New Zealand is expected to fall by around 10 per cent this year,” he said. “This is due to a combination of several factors including aviation access across the Tasman and a double digit growth last year.

“The loss of Ansett combined with the impact of US terrorist attacks will also impact on visitor arrivals from Japan, with an expected 0.4 per cent drop in arrivals in 2001. However, Australia’s perception of a safe holiday destination as well as the switch in travel from the US and Europe, may assist Australia to build market share.

“Europe, including the UK is forecast to be one of the most resilient inbound markets for Australia with 3.3 per cent growth expected for 2001. This includes solid growth from the most important European market, the UK, with 5.5 per cent increase in visitor arrivals compared to 2000.

“Asia is also likely to be less impacted by the US terrorism attacks with growth of 3.8 per cent expected for this year. However, air capacity combined with economic uncertainties in some countries will impact on outbound travel from the region.'

Mr Boundy said the current environment was very tough and uncertain with consumer confidence down and tightening world economic conditions which would continue to impact on inbound travel to Australia.