PATA RELEASES TOURISM FORECASTS FOR EUROPE 2001-2005

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) announces the release of the Tourism Forecasts for Europe 2001-2005. The benchmark study provides short- to medium-term travel forecasts for key European countries. Written by professors Lindsay W. Turner, Victoria University, Australia and Stephen F. Witt, University of Surrey, United Kingdom, the report aims to be a valuable tool for companies and organisations making resource allocations.

The 292-page hardback report offers comprehensive travel forecasts for Europe’s changing travel consumption patterns, seasonal passenger flow changes, tourism receipts and future accommodation requirements.

The study gives in-depth arrival forecasts for 33 countries, departure forecasts for 21 countries, 12 quarterly arrival reports and 15 quarterly departure reports. Extensive trends pointing to growth rates and market share for each country are also featured.

The authors use Structural Integrated Time-Series Economic Analysis (SITEA) methodology which is designed to be flexible and overcome the limitations of Time Series and Econometric forecast models.

PATA Managing Director-Strategic Information Centre, Mr. John Koldowski, said: "Travel and tourism at the global level have been increasing dramatically over the last few decades and there is little sign that this will change, at least in the short- to medium-term. The implications for this industry are therefore significant as some destinations need to stimulate demand while others are turning to management of existing volume flows."

He added: "Shifts, when they occur, increasingly do so rapidly and it is always nice to be forewarned." However, Mr. Koldowski admitted that attempting to predict the future was inherently risky.

"Forecasts, by virtue of the fact they cannot factor in unknown significant events, may often fall short or exceed reality. However, as the authors contend in this report, the forecasts themselves serve a useful function in providing a benchmark against which the final actual result may be viewed."

Tourism Forecasts for Europe 2001-2005 costs US$350 for PATA members and US$499 for non-members.