Global Expansion Fuels Marriott Earnings Growth

Marriott has said it is on track to have 4,000 hotels in 90 countries across its 14-brand lodging portfolio by 2014.

With 115,000 hotel rooms in its development pipeline, it could open between 90,000 and 105,000 new rooms around the world in 2012 through 2014, not including the planned Gaylord acquisition.

In presentations at its first meeting in China for security analysts and institutional investors, Marriott also said it expects to have more than 100 hotels across nine brands and nearly 40 markets in China by 2014.

Assuming 6 to 8% compound growth in worldwide systemwide RevPAR for 2012 through 2014, diluted earnings per share (EPS) could reach US$2.45 to US$2.85 in 2014.

Arne Sorenson, Marriott International’s president and chief executive officer, told investors, “China is a fitting place to present our tremendous global growth story and discuss our outstanding financial prospects. Even today, China is our second most important market after North America, representing roughly 5% of total fees. On average we expect to open a hotel a month in this country over the next three years.

“Beyond our major expansion here, China also represents extraordinary opportunities for the travel sector globally. The country is now the third largest source market for international travel behind the U.S. and Germany, with 70 million travelers annually, fueled by a dramatically growing middle class. Chinese arrivals in the U.S. were one million in 2011 and are expected to grow to three million by 2016. We are working with our industry to smooth the visa process in the U.S. and we look forward to welcoming more visitors from around the world,” said Mr. Sorenson.

Discussing its operating model, the company said it could generate between US$1.8 billion and US$1.9 billion in worldwide fee revenue through 2014, assuming compound worldwide systemwide RevPAR growth of 6 to 8%.

With strong cash flow expected, Marriott said it assumes investment spending of US$2.6 billion to US$2.8 billion from 2012 through 2014. The company expects to recycle US$800 million to US$1 billion of capital during the period. Assuming this level of net investment, a 6 to 8% RevPAR growth scenario and new debt issuances, the company said it could have US$4.0 billion to US$4.7 billion to return to investors or deploy in additional opportunistic investments over the next three years.

Marriott plans to hire 30,000 employees in China by the end of 2015.

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