PATA’s Tourism Forecast for 2011-13

PATA has predicted an annual average rate of growth in arrivals to 42-destinations within the Asia Pacific region of just under 7% between 2009 and 2013.

Asia is expected to receive much of this growth, with an average increase of around 7.5% per annum. North America will average around 5% and the Pacific between 4-5%, over that period.

Within Asia, the fastest growing sub-region will be Southeast Asia with just over 8%, followed by South Asia with around 7.5% and Northeast Asia at just over 7% (figures per annum).

Around 15 source regions will generate double-digit growth into Asia Pacific over the period to 2013, with intra-Asia traffic alone fuelling annual gains of around 7.5% and adding more than 76-million additional arrivals to Asia by 2013.

The ones to watch out for are South and Central Asia into Northeast Asia (17% and 14% gains per annum respectively), as well as the Middle East markets, which are also tipped to show substantial growth with gains in excess of 10% per annum to 2013.

In terms of generating the most physical arrivals however, it is Northeast Asia and the Americas that PATA predicts will generate most additional traffic to Asia Pacific. Northeast Asia will add an additional 65-million arrivals to Asia Pacific destinations by 2013, while North America will add close to 18-million more than in 2009.

This will all be largely intra-regional growth however, with around 83% of the additional arrivals from North America heading to destinations within the Americas, while just under 80% of the additional growth from Northeast Asia will be to destinations within Northeast Asia.

Long-haul traffic from Europe to Asia Pacific will still be significant, adding more than 8.7-million arrivals to the Asia Pacific region by 2013, nevertheless continuing its contraction of relative market-share as Asian source markets rise in dominance.

A similar scenario can be seen for the Americas; even though the volume of arrivals from that source region is increasing, in relative terms the share of traffic generated from the Americas will decrease somewhat to 2013.

 John Koldowski, Deputy CEO and Head, Office of Strategy Management, PATA, said, “This is not surprising, particularly given the enormous rise in air seat capacity on the intra-Asia routes, especially from the so-called low-cost carriers. This shift in source markets carries a significant number of issues for operators in the region. Many of the long-haul markets have relatively longer lengths of stay, therefore, any decrease in arrivals from these sources, even though relative, will be felt in terms of nights booked and of quite possibly yield.”

“That said however, it must also be recognised that the new wave of Asian travellers are surprising many operators in terms of their increasingly sophisticated demands and their ability to expect and pay for the very best,” Koldowski added.

Overall, the next few years look promising for the Asia Pacific region, with arrivals growth expected to be close to double that of the world average.

The PATA ‘Asia Pacific Tourism Forecasts 2011-13’ will be officially launched at PATA’s 60th anniversary celebrations and conference to be held in Beijing, China, between 10 - 12 April.

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