Airline Passenger Traffic Numbers Continue Decline in November 2008

IATA’s results for November 2008 show a 4.6% drop in international airline passenger traffic and a 13.5% drop in international cargo. International capacity for the month dropped by 1%. The November international passenger load factors stood at 72.7% which is a decline of approximately 3 percentage points over the same month last year.

“The 13.5% drop in international cargo is shocking. As air cargo handles 35% of the value of goods traded internationally, it clearly shows the rapid fall in global trade and the broadening impact of the economic slowdown. By comparison, this is largest drop since 2001, in the aftermath of September 11,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

“The industry is now shrinking by all measures. The 1.0% capacity cut in international passenger markets in November could not keep pace with the 4.6% fall in passenger demand. We can expect deep losses in the fourth quarter,” said Bisignani.

International Passenger Traffic

 The November passenger decline of 4.6% is a considerable worsening from both the 1.3% demand contraction in October and the 2.9% fall in September.

Asia Pacific carriers face the most difficult operating environment with a 9.7% decline in November, following a 6.1% contraction in October. The region also had the most aggressive capacity cuts at -5.1%. While Chinese domestic traffic rebounded after the Olympics, travel to and from international markets continues to decline, reflecting the weakness in both global trade and consumer confidence.

North American carriers saw international traffic decline by 4.8% - the second largest drop among the regions. Until August, the region’s carriers had been shifting capacity to international markets. With the near collapse of the investment banking sector and consequent reductions in business travel, North Atlantic travel slumped. Carriers have started to cut international capacity with a 0.8% drop in November (following 0.4% growth in October).

European carriers saw international traffic drop by 3.4% as all the region’s major markets (intra-Europe, North Atlantic, and Asia) slumped.

Smaller emerging markets fared better. African carriers saw traffic decline by 1.6%. This is a considerable improvement from the 12.9% drop in October, resulting from stronger intra-African traffic. Middle Eastern carriers saw traffic increase by 5.6%. This is up from 3.5% growth in October, but represents a step-change from the double-digit expansion that characterized growth prior to the current financial crisis. Latin American carriers saw a slight decline in growth to 3.3% (compared to 4.5% growth in October), buoyed by the region’s positive, albeit slower, economic growth.

International Freight Traffic

Asia Pacific carriers (representing 44.6% of global freight) saw freight traffic fall by 16.9% in November - the largest decline of any region. As freight accounts for a larger percentage of revenues for the Asia Pacific carriers, fourth quarter profits for the region’s carriers will be disproportionately (and negatively) impacted by the downturn in the global air freight market.

Double-digit freight declines were also experienced by Latin American carriers (-15.7%), North American carriers (-14.4%) and European carriers (-11%). Freight traffic for Middle Eastern carriers turned negative (-1.6%), following 1% growth in October. African carriers, while being the only region posting freight growth (2.2%), saw a decline from the 3% growth posted in October.

“With no end in sight for the worsening global economy, the 2008 gloom will carry over into the new year. Relief in the oil price has been outstripped by the falls in demand and capacity cuts are not keeping pace. The industry is back in intensive care. Improving efficiency everywhere will be theme for 2009,” said Bisignani.

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