PATA reveals 21% Visitor Arrivals growth for early 2004

Early 2004 statistics for international visitor arrivals (IVAs) to 30 Asia Pacific destinations show 21% growth, the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) Strategic Intelligence Centre (SIC) revealed today.

While these are only preliminary results reflecting the first months of 2004, PATA Managing Director-SIC Mr John Koldowski said signs were positive. "The PATA region is on track for IVA growth of more than 15% for calendar year 2004 compared to calendar year 2003," he said.

A direct comparison of each destination's year-to-date IVAs with those for the same reporting period in 2003 showed that, in total, the 30 destinations welcomed an additional 15.3 million IVAs in early 2004. (The reporting periods differ from destination to destination.)

Mr Koldowski said: "By taking a similar first reporting period comparison back through to 2000 it becomes apparent that gains in IVAs are consistently positive, with the 2004 result the best - in volume terms - since 2000."

Comparing IVAs in 2004 with 2003 is not ideal due to the effects of the SARS outbreak, said Mr Koldowski. "However, the good news is that the destinations that were most directly affected by SARS last year are collectively well ahead in volume terms in 2004," he said. "This is largely due to the dramatic increases in flows to and from mainland China."

Statistical tables showing the results are available for download at https://www.pata.org/ftp/PRJuly8.pdf

The following bullet points represent direct and quotable region-by-region commentary by Mr Koldowski:-

- While Singapore and Chinese Taipei are still behind the high levels of 2001 and 2002 respectively, the lag is minimal and - assuming no new negative factors - should exceed those levels very soon, especially as the trough for May and June 2003 has yet to be factored in.

- In South Asia, India and the Maldives have begun their first reporting periods of 2004 with exceptionally strong growth rates.

- In Northeast Asia, China (PRC), Hong Kong, Japan and Macau are showing strong growth rates as well.

- In Southeast Asia, arrivals through 13 ports into Indonesia are at the highest levels for the reporting period since 2000, with Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam also showing the most arrivals for five years.

- In the Pacific, seven of the ten destinations for which provisional 2004 year-to-date data are available show the highest number of arrivals since 2000, with the Republic of Palau, New Zealand and Samoa leading the way. The Northern Marianas Islands and Fiji have so far posted slower gains but are still in excess of anything since 2000. Australia and New Zealand are showing signs of moving into positive growth territory after some periods of stagnation.

- In North America, while there are signs of upward movements, at this stage it still looks like a long, difficult and slow process before record IVAs will be exceeded once again.