PATA releases Three-Year PATA Tourism Forecasts

A new PATA report just released factors in the effects of the current conflict in Iraq on travel flows to, from and within the PATA region. Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2003-2005, a PATA Strategic Intelligence Centre (SIC) publication, is available through PATA Headquarters in Bangkok.

"Due to the trend towards intra-regional travel, the Pacific Asia travel industry may be relatively insulated from the negative effects of the current conflict in the Middle East, at least in the short-term," PATA Managing Director-SIC, Mr. John Koldowski, said. "Certainly many destinations in the region will be looking to medium- and short-haul source markets as long-haul sources begin contracting in volume."

Taking into account the effects of war in Iraq, the new study shows that of the 39 regional destinations covered in the book, two-thirds would expect to show gains in 2003. Ninety percent can expect growth in 2004.

Prepared by leading international experts on econometric modelling, professors Lindsay W. Turner and Stephen F. Witt, the report:

* Factors in the effects of recent terrorist attacks in the region as well as those of the current actions in Iraq;

* Forecasts tourism arrivals by country of origin/nationality for 39 Pacific Asia destinations from 2003 to 2005;

* Forecasts tourism departures from ten major generating markets, discusses overall travel trends and includes market-share analyses; and

* Forecasts receipts generated by arrivals and the effect on accommodation stocks for select destinations.

"Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2003-2005 represents a rigorous quantitative analysis backed by expert opinion to give a specific view of where the travel industry could head over the next three years," said Mr. Koldowski.

The price for the 271-page hard cover volume is US$350 for PATA members and US$499 for PATA chapters and non-members. Purchasers of last year's book, Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2002-2004, are entitled to a 30 percent discount.