For many, the preliminary tourism statistics for
2002 will come as a surprise. For the first time in history, the number of international tourist arrivals has
exceeded the 700 million mark, and despite all the grim expectations and
debates about the crisis, the year ended with a 3.1 per cent increase. Tourism
has once again proven its resilience.
In total, according to the preliminary data sent to the World Tourism
Organization from official sources throughout the world, almost 715 million
international tourist arrivals were registered last year. That is 22 million more
than in 2001 or, compared with the "millennium year" which many experts claim should be taken as the reference,
almost 19 million more than in 2000.
"The results we have are credible and give a rather clear picture,"
says Mr. Augusto Huéscar, WTO Chief of Marketing Intelligence and Promotion. He
also underlines that International Tourism Arrivals (ITA) count only part of
world tourism, in which domestic markets are not included. The latter has
profited a great deal during tourism's greatest crisis, especially in the United
States. Data on tourism receipts are not yet available, since they require a
more a complex methodology.
"We can be relatively satisfied with the year 2002 and cautiously
optimistic about the development of 2003," says Mr. Frangialli. "The statistics did meet
our expectations, in some parts of the world they even exceeded them, however we should not forget that the threats are
anything but over."
"We have a lot of work to do to reaffirm positive trends, but first
of all, to regain consumer confidence where needed. World tourism has never before felt
such a need for cooperation as now," the Secretary-General points out. "Taking all the problems into account,
we can all be certain that tourism is firmly on the way to recovery,
back to the trends predicted in Tourism 2020 Vision," says Mr.
Frangialli.
The preliminary results for 2002 show a substantial change in the
world tourism map: Europe remains firmly in first place, while Asia and the Pacific
claimed the number two spot from the Americas. The international arrivals to
African and Middle Eastern destinations are growing slightly above the world's average, but the base remains
rather low.
All the European subregions ended 2002 with positive results. South
Mediterranean Europe, with Spain, Italy and Greece, leads the way with its
share of the world market exceeding 20 per cent, eclipsing Western Europe by
barely half a percentage point. Germany managed to maintain the status quo
with respect to 2001, the Benelux and Austria saw slight growth, and United
Kingdom experienced growth of over 3 per cent. However, growth in Western
Europe was below average overall, while international arrivals increased by
an average of 3.9 per cent in Central and Eastern Europe. The unlucky
exceptions are Poland and the Czech Republic, with a serious decline of more
than 5 per cent.
More than 130 million international tourist arrivals were registered
in Asia and the Pacific, which many regard as the "destination of the future". Northeast
Asia led all subregions with almost 12 per cent growth, followed by Southeast
Asia (a bit less than 4 per cent growth), Oceania (1 per cent growth) and South
Asia (2 per cent increase). This means that the WTO predictions from some
years ago -- namely China, together with Hong Kong and Macau, becoming an
increasingly relevant tourism power -- have already started to become reality.
India suffered a 6.6 per cent fall, while Iran, the Maldives and Sri Lanka are
doing way above average, so it seems that their strategies work.
The Americas was the only region to close 2002 in the red. But it
should be noted that the decline from dramatic 2001 averages out to just below one per
cent, with North America (the United States, Canada and Mexico) increasing,
thanks to positive results of Canada, 0.4 per cent on 2001, which -- with a fall
of almost 7 per cent -- was painful enough. North America still holds a "decent" global market share of
almost 12 per cent, but this is much lower than its 14.6 per cent share in 1995. The Caribbean islands experienced a
decline for the second year in the row, with a 3 per cent drop -- much bigger
than the 1.9 per cent decline the subregion suffered in 2001 -- probably as a
side effect of the problems in the US airline industry. But the damage was
small compared to the 7 per cent fall in international arrivals to South America,
1.9 percentage point worse than last year's 5.1 per cent decline. The only subregion to have enjoyed growth in Americas
was Central America, almost 10 per cent, but on a rather low base compared to other
subregions.
Africa offers a very different picture. While Northern Africa
experienced a decrease of 4 per cent, Sub-Saharan Africa performed way above average,
with an 8.5 per cent increase. The Middle East suffered an almost 4 per cent
decrease in 2001, but performed extremely well, with an 11 per cent increase
in 2002.
The impact of the terrorist attacks in Djerba, Bali and Mombassa
The post-September 11 syndrome has not yet been overcome, although
the media sometimes tend to give it a too much importance. The picture of US
tourism would namely be much more favourable if the economy performed as
desired and if some large airlines and tour operators didn't cautiously downplay capacities.
The terrorist attacks did affect tourism last year, however, rather
locally and for a short time. The greatest effect was felt in Northern Africa, where the
attack on a synagogue in Djerba hurt tourism all over Tunisia, as well as in
other parts of Northern Africa. It is a noteworthy fact that the attack happened in spring, and thus affected
the statistics for the entire year and especially the summer season.
The bombing near Mombassa happened in late autumn, and it had a very
limited local impact. According to the information from the travel sector and
tour operators, the latter have not abandoned Kenya and the subregion.
The Bali tragedy has not tremendously affected Indonesia's tourism
statistics. However, the country still finished the year with a 2.2 per cent fall in ITAs. The
island and the whole of Indonesia received a great deal of sympathy and
support from all over the world, and the Indonesian government reacted immediately and very professionally, so
it is expected that the impact will not last a long time.
These facts prove the thesis that the economic situation in the world
is a more powerful threat to international tourism arrivals than fear of terrorism.
"Tourists are getting more and more experienced, although the amount of the
information on war threats, images of the sites after bomb attacks and doubtful official suggestions has never
before been so enormous," says WTO Secretary-General Mr. Francesco
Frangialli. "
"Wars and tourism are completely incompatible, just like fire and
water," underlines the Secretary-General. "We hope the military development can be
avoided. If it is not, we shall activate all possible resources we have, the
Tourism Recovery Committee being the most important one, to mitigate the
impact of war. "The Secretary-General recalled the situation of winter 1991,
when the Gulf War very negatively affected the world tourism, which grew
only 1.2 per cent in that year. However, 1992 ended with an 8.2 per cent
increase.
"The biggest problem in the current situation of world tourism is
uncertainty", says Mr. Frangialli. In addition to that, the economic
situation in the world is not improving as fast as desired, oil is expensive and the stock exchanges
reached low points. The tourism industry, however, rapidly reacted to the
important structural changes in the sector and to the new challenges in the
relationship between supply and demand. |