PATA believes Asia Pacific relatively insulated from negative war impact

Due to the trend towards intra-regional travel, the Pacific Asia travel industry may be better insulated than many from the negative effects of any new conflict in the Middle East, according to a Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) forecast report.

Despite factoring in the effects of a possible U.S.-led war with Iraq, the new study shows that of the 39 regional destinations covered in the book, two-thirds are expected to show gains in 2003. Ninety percent can expect growth in 2004.

PATA Strategic Intelligence Managing Director, Mr. John Koldowski, said: “Asia in particular is well positioned as Southeast and Northeast Asia supplies almost two-thirds of international visitor arrivals to those same regions. This is by no means an absolute, as much will depend upon the nature, duration and  extent of any new conflict and the manner in which our own intra-regional travel sensitivities develop."

The report, Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2003-2005, will be released at the 52nd PATA Annual Conference in Bali, Indonesia on April 13, 2003.

Prepared by leading international experts on econometric modelling, professors Lindsay W. Turner and Stephen F. Witt, the report forecasts tourism arrivals by country of origin for 39 Pacific Asia destinations from 2003 to 2005.

The study also forecasts tourism departures from ten major generating markets, discusses overall travel trends and includes market-share analyses. For select destinations the report forecasts arrivals by purpose of visit, receipts generated and the effect on accommodation stocks.

The authors have factored in the effects of recent terrorist attacks in the region as well as the possibility of a major conflict in the Middle East in early 2003.

Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2003-2005 represents expert opinion, backed by rigorous quantitative analysis of where the travel industry is going over the next three years.

The book will sell for US$350 to PATA members and US$499 to non-members. Purchasers of Pacific Asia Tourism Forecasts 2002-2004 are entitled to a 30 percent discount. The publication can be ordered through PATA Coordinator-Publications, Ms. Patcharin Hongprapat. E-mail: patcharin@pata.th.com.