According to Airbus’ new Global Market
Forecast 2018-2037, the world’s passenger fleet will more than
double to 48,000 aircraft in 20 years with traffic growing at a
resilient 4.4% per year, driving a need for 37,390 new passenger
and freighter aircraft.
Growth drivers include private consumption
increasing 2.4 times in emerging economies, higher disposable
incomes and a near doubling of the middle classes globally.
Emerging countries will account for over
60% of economic growth, with trips per capita to multiply 2.5
times for these nations.
Combined with evolving airline business models
and continuing liberalisation, the growing scale of air
transportation will lead to an increasing resilience to regional
Greater aircraft range and capacity through
technological developments allow airlines the flexibility to
explore new business opportunities whilst maintaining focus on
“There is a growing trend to use aircraft across
a broader range of operations, with today’s more capable aircraft
blurring the boundaries between market segments. These realities
made us develop a new segmentation with Small, Medium, Large and
Extra-Large categories, reflecting more closely the way airlines
operate aircraft,” said Eric Schulz, Airbus Chief Commercial
Officer. “Thanks to the versatility of our leading, most
comprehensive family of aircraft, the top end of our single
aisles, the A321neo, fly efficiently on long haul routes and our
wide bodies like the A330neo equally serve regional operations.
We’re extremely strong in this Medium market segment.”
The Small (S) segment
means aircraft such as the A320neo while the Large (L) segment has the A350-900.
In the Extra-Large (XL) segment, the market for replacement
aircraft is just starting and provides opportunities for the A350-1000 combined with the A380.
Looking at the four segmentations more closely,
in the Small segment typically covering the space where most of
today’s single-aisle aircraft compete, there is a forecast future
requirement for 28,550 new aircraft, representing more than
three-quarters of total expected demand.
In the Medium segment,
for missions requiring additional capacity and range flexibility,
represented by smaller widebodies and longer-range single-aisle
aircraft, Airbus forecasts demand for 5,480 passenger and freight
For additional capacity and range flexibility, in the
Large segment where most A350s are present today, there is a need
for 1,760 aircraft.
In the Extra-Large segment, typically
reflecting high capacity and long range missions by the largest
aircraft types including the A350-1000 and the A380, Airbus
forecasts demand for 1,590 aircraft over the next 20 years.
Of the 37,390 new aircraft required, 26,540 are
for growth and 10,850 will replace older generation less fuel
The more than doubling in the world fleet
to 48,000 aircraft results in a need for 540,000 new pilots.
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