ATR Estimates Market for 3,020 Turboprop Aircraft in Next 20 Years

ATR published its new Market Forecast (2018-2037) on Monday, in which it estimates a market for 3,020 turboprop aircraft in the next 20 years.

In the 2018-2037 market forecast, nearly 80% (2,390 aircraft) of the total demand is expected to come from the 61-80 seat category, a market segment served for years by the ATR 72.

The remaining 20% (630 aircraft) will come from the 40-60 seat market, a segment where the ATR 42, the only 50-seat aircraft available new on the market, provides strong potential for the up gauge of 30-seat, and the replacement of 50-seat, regional aircraft.

Over the next 20 years, the largest demand for turboprops is expected to come from Asia (43%), followed by Europe, Africa and Middle East (31%) and the Americas (26%).

Beyond passenger aircraft, ATR estimates that the increase of freight traffic will generate, over the next two decades, a potential for the delivery of 460 turboprop freighters. This includes converted aircraft as well as the recently launched ATR 72-600F, the only regional cargo aircraft available straight from factory.

There are several drivers that can explain the expected high demand for turboprops

Regional aviation has experienced an outstanding development, with 58% of the current regional networks worldwide having been created over the last 15 years. The growth of the regional routes has been particularly intense in the period 2012 – 2017, with ATR playing a major role, with an annual average of over 100 new routes created, and a record of 155 new routes in 2017.

Today, turboprops operate half of the flights below 330 nm all over the world. Based on their current and recent success in opening new routes with the lowest risk, ATR estimates that turboprop aircraft have the potential to generate 2,770 new routes in the 20 years to come. During this period, regional traffic is expected to grow annually at a pace of 4.5%, with around 30% of the traffic in 2037 coming from routes that do not currently exist.

Air connectivity plays an essential role in boosting local economies. An increase in flights of 10% generates additional increases of 5% in tourism, 6% in regional GDP and 8% foreign direct investment. Turboprops are key in connecting communities around the world: 36% of all commercial airports rely exclusively on turboprops and 50% rely, also exclusively, on regional aircraft.

Besides the recent launch of the new ATR 72-600F freighter version, ATR is evaluating a version of the ATR 42-600 with enhanced performance at take-off and landing, thus potentially expanding accessibility and opening new routes and markets.

The turboprop manufacturer will also expand operational versatility with the new ClearVision system, a first in commercial aviation, currently under certification, that enhances pilot visibility and awareness.

The expansion of customer support and services, along with their progressive digitalisation, will also continue to play a key role in the success of turboprops in the years to come. Today, with an in-service fleet of over 1,100 aircraft, ATR’s services revenue represents some 20% of the total turnover, and is expected to grow by 10% annually.

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