According to the latest market forecast from STR
and Tourism Economics, Moscow’s hotel industry is projected to see
RevPAR growth in the range of 20% and 30% during June and July
A RevPAR increase in that range would be
less than the growth realized in Rio de Janeiro (2014) and
Johannesburg (2010), key markets for the previous two FIFA World
Cup host countries.
While occupancy is likely to grow between 8% and
10% to absolute levels just under 80% during the World Cup months,
Moscow’s ADR is projected to increase between 15%
and 20%. That trend would be consistent with previous FIFA World Cup tournaments as STR analysts note that room rates are more
significantly boosted by the event whereas demand remains fairly
stable in year-on-year comparisons.
STR analysts also note
that while demand is helped by such a large event, year-on-year
occupancy comparisons are typically hurt due to supply growth as
well as other regular hotel business avoiding the market during
major event months. Supply growth leading up to such “mega events”
creates more room inventory and pressure on occupancy levels.
In Rio de Janeiro in 2014, occupancy rose by double-digits
from the previous June (+12.6% to 81.6%) and July (+18.3% to
80.0%) in the market. At the same time, ADR increased 72.8% and
64.4% during the two months, respectively, driving RevPAR
increases of 94.5%.
In Johannesburg in 2010, occupancy
jumped from the previous June (+27.7% to 78.5%) and grew to a
lesser degree in July (+7.4% to 63.7%). ADR increased 56.3% and
44.5% during the two months, respectively, driving RevPAR
increases of 99.6% and 55.1%.
Moscow’s room count is
substantially higher than Rio and Johannesburg. That also creates
less opportunity for substantial uplift in performance in
percentage terms from a comparable number of additional visitors
travelling for the tournament.
Through the first four
months of 2018, Moscow saw occupancy grow 6.7% year over year to
an absolute level of 65.8%. Using the same four-month
year-over-year comparison, ADR was down 0.8% to RUB5,363.70.
Preliminary data for May showed occupancy 74.8% (+11.5%) and ADR