STR Global has released two Hotel Market
Forecast reports that cover Barcelona and Tokyo.
The reports are based on the latest hotel data
collected by STR Global and modeled by Tourism Economics, a
division of Oxford Economics, providing a 5-year hotel market
outlook for the cities.
"Whilst Barcelona has enjoyed positive RevPAR
growth in 2011 and the first quarter (Q1) this year, the outlook
shows a more balanced picture. With the current uncertainties
surrounding the Euro zone, Barcelona is predicted to experience
short-term RevPAR decline in 2012 before recovering slightly in
2013," said Elizabeth Randall, managing director at STR Global.
"On the other hand, we are pleased to see double-digit RevPAR
growth forecasted until the end of this year as Japan's economy
and market rebound from the 2011 tsunami and earthquake."
Tokyo's outlook for 2012 is positive, with
RevPAR growth expected to increase by 13.9% year-on-year, led by
both occupancy and rate growth. This is coming off weaker results
in 2011. Tokyo achieved occupancy of 71.5% (-9.7%) in Q1 2011. In
Q2 of 2011, the occupancy rates following the earthquake dropped
by 21.1% before stabilizing again during the remaining last two
quarters of the year. Overall in 2011, the ADR declined by 6.7% to
JPY 13,195.13. During the first quarter of 2012, occupancy grew by
11.1% to 79.5% whilst ADR remained slightly below the previous
Looking forward, whilst occupancy will continue
to be positive in 2013, RevPAR will be driven mainly by ADR
growth. The future performance of hotels will be determined by the
ability of the Japanese economy to overcome the challenges coming
from the reconstruction in the regions affected by the tsunami and
the global economic environment.
Barcelona's outlook shows only slight changes in
performance for this and next year. This follows stronger growth
in 2011, when Barcelona saw RevPAR performance grow by 8.5% to
€81.68. Growth was led by increased occupancy (+4.5%) and rate
(+3.8%). Whilst the economic forecast in the Euro zone remains
uncertain, STR's forecast predicts that RevPAR will decline
(-0.7%) in 2012 before recovering in 2013 (+0.8%). In 2012 RevPAR
is predicted to be led by decreasing occupancy (-1.0%), whilst in
2013 rate and occupancy are expected to stay almost flat against
2012. The positive outlook in 2013 is boosted by MICE business,
which is expected to host several high-profile events in
Barcelona. This will be a relief from less optimistic economic
news with GDP in Spain expected to contract by 1.7% in 2012 and
further declines in 2013 by 1.5%.
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