Optimistic Outlook Holds Steady in Asia Pacific Region

Consumers across the Asia Pacific region are approaching the next six months with a steady sense of optimism, according to the latest MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence survey, released on Tuesday. Eight of the fourteen markets polled reflected positive consumer sentiment looking ahead, with the Asia Pacific region witnessing an overall increase in its consumer confidence index score from six months ago (69.1 vs 66.3 six months ago).

Now in its 18th year, the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence is one of the region’s most comprehensive and longest running consumer confidence surveys. Released twice a year, the Index is based on a survey which measures consumer confidence on prevailing expectations in the market for the next six months based on five economic indicators: Economy, Employment, Stock Market, Regular Income and Quality of Life. The Index score is calculated with zero as the most pessimistic, 100 as most optimistic and 50 as neutral.

The latest survey was conducted from 15 March to 12 April 2010 involved 10,503 consumers from 24 markets (Asia Pacific: Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Middle East: Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates. Africa: Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa). Data collection was via internet surveys, personal, telephone and Computer Aided Telephone interviews, with the questionnaire translated to the local language wherever appropriate and necessary.

Vietnam (93.7), Singapore (86.6) and China (83.0) continued to reflect higher consumer confidence compared to other markets in the region. Malaysia (71.7 vs 63.5), the Philippines (84.6 vs 69.9), Singapore (84.3 vs 67.5) and Taiwan (64.3 vs 47.2) showed increased confidence in their Regular Income outlook as compared to six months ago.

Across the region, the trend of respondents below the age of 30 being more optimistic than their older counterparts has continued, with the index scores of the former group averaging 73.0 points, as compared to 67.4 points for those over the age of 30. This was significant in New Zealand (77.2 for those below 30 vs 61.8 for those above 30), Hong Kong (83.3 vs 74.4), Singapore (92.0 vs 84.0) and the Philippines (64.4 vs 56.7). Respondents above the age of 30 in Korea, however, reflected higher optimism levels than their younger counterparts (56.0 for those above 30 vs 47.7 for those below 30).

Japan’s levels of pessimism decreased, as index scores increased from 24.4 six months ago to 27.8 for the six months ahead, with confidence in the stock market improving from an index score of 36.6 to 44.1. Optimism levels in the Philippines (59.3 vs 49.7 six months ago) rebounded significantly, pulled upwards by a positive outlook towards Regular Income (84.6 vs 69.9), the Economy (58.0 vs 46.4) and Employment (53.7 vs 43.4) for the six month period ahead. China, however, witnessed a slight decline (2.3) in index score from six months ago, with a drop in optimism in the stock market (67.9 for the six months ahead vs 74.2 six months ago).

Dr. Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, economic advisor, Asia Pacific, MasterCard Worldwide said, “The Asia Pacific region rebounded in economic growth as early as the second half of last year, and regional recovery has continued to gain traction this year. While consumers in this region were amongst the first to cut back drastically on discretionary spending 18 months ago, they now seem confident and ready to significantly increase their discretionary expenditures and reduce their precautionary savings. This stability of consumer confidence and rising consumption in Asia Pacific therefore bodes well for stronger business investment through the rest of the year, thereby contributing to the momentum of recovery.”

MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence H2 2010 Market Findings: Asia Pacific Markets

Australia (74.1): Australians are optimistic in their outlook for the next six months. Their Index score is higher than that of six months ago (69.5) and much higher than a year ago (24.1). Consumers are more optimistic than they were six months ago about the Stock Market (82.1 vs. 79.9 six months ago), Regular Income (77.3 vs. 68.0) and Employment (78.2 vs. 65.2). Outlook on the other indicators have declined from six months ago: Quality of Life (55.8 vs 56.2) and the Economy (76.9 vs 78.3).

China (83.0): Consumers in China are slightly less optimistic about the next six months than they were six months ago (85.3) but more optimistic than a year ago (60.8). However, this is significantly higher than the Asia/Pacific region average (69.1). Consumers are more optimistic than they were six months ago about Regular Income (88.0 vs. 87.5). However, the outlook on the other indicators have declined from six months ago: Quality of Life (89.2 vs 92.4), the Stock Market (67.9 vs. 74.2), the Economy (90.3 vs 92.5).The outlook on Employment remained the same as six months ago, at 79.8.

Hong Kong (76.6): Consumers in Hong Kong have become much more optimistic, registering a hike in consumer confidence scores from six months ago (60.0) and a year ago (24.7). Consumer sentiment is optimistic for the Economy (83.8 vs 68.3 six months ago), Employment (83.3 vs 67.4), the Stock Market (79.2 vs 63.2), Regular Income (75.0 vs 53.2) and Quality of Life (61.7 vs 48.0).

India (68.2): Consumers in India are slightly less optimistic than six months ago (68.8) and slightly more optimistic than a year ago (68.0). Consumers are more optimistic than they were six months ago about the Stock Market (70.2 vs. 70.0) and Regular Income (74.0 vs 70.5). However, the outlook on the other indicators has declined slightly from six months ago: Quality of Life (67.3 vs 69.8), the Economy (64.5 vs 66.7) and Employment (65.0 vs 66.9).

Indonesia (61.4): Indonesian consumers have become less optimistic about the next six months compared to six months ago (67.0) but are more optimistic than a year ago (49.2). Consumers are more optimistic than they were six months ago about the Stock Market (68.4 vs. 64.4). However, the outlook on the other indicators has declined from six months ago: Quality of Life (59.7 vs. 61.7), Regular Income (73.5 vs. 74.3), Economy (56.6 vs 69.9) and Employment (49.0 vs. 64.4).

Japan (27.8): Japanese consumers are less pessimistic than they were six months ago (27.8 vs. 24.4). However, their index score continued to be significantly lower than the Asia/Pacific region average (69.1). Consumer sentiments towards the Stock Market (44.1 vs. 36.6), Regular Income (17.4 vs. 13.5), Economy (37.0 vs. 34.2) and Employment (29.7 vs 23.6) have improved from six months ago. Consumers are less optimistic about the Quality of Life (11.0 vs. 14.3).

Korea (54.1): Korean consumers have become less optimistic in their outlook compared to six months ago (59.8) but are much more optimistic than a year ago (28.8). Consumer are less optimistic than they were six months ago about the Quality of Life (44.9 vs. 52.2), Stock Market (63.5 vs. 64.0), Regular Income (59.7 vs. 70.5), Economy (58.2 vs 63.5) and Employment (44.3 vs 48.6).

Malaysia (67.9): Malaysians are more optimistic in their outlook for the next six months. Their Index score is slightly higher than that of six months ago (66.3) and much higher than a year ago (27.8). Consumer sentiments towards the Stock Market (68.6 vs. 64.9) and Regular Income (71.7 vs. 63.5) have improved from six months ago. Consumers are less optimistic about the Quality of Life (64.7 vs. 66.0), Economy (69.6 vs. 70.0) and Employment (64.8 vs. 67.0).

New Zealand (65.9): Consumer confidence in New Zealand has decreased, with consumers becoming less optimistic in their outlook compared to six months ago (69.7). However, they continue to remain much more optimistic than a year ago (21.5). Consumer sentiments towards Regular Income (71.3 vs. 66.7) and Employment (74.1 vs. 72.6) have improved from six months ago. Consumers are less optimistic about the Quality of Life (48.0 vs 51.1), the Stock Market (65.9 vs 76.6) and the Economy (70.2 vs 81.4).

Philippines (59.3): Consumer confidence in the Philippines has improved from six months ago (49.7) and a year ago (40.5). Consumers have become more optimistic in their outlook towards Regular Income (84.6 vs. 69.9 six months ago), the Stock Market (50.0 vs. 47.3), the Economy (58.0 vs. 46.4), Employment (53.7 vs. 43.4) and Quality of Life (50.2 vs. 41.8).

Singapore (86.6): Singaporean consumers have become more optimistic compared to six months ago (79.4) and a year ago (31.2). Consumers are optimistic with improvements in all five indicators compared to six months ago. They are more optimistic in their outlook towards the Economy (95.5 vs. 89.7), Employment (94.0 vs. 86.5), the Stock Market (83.2 vs. 80.6), Quality of Life (75.8 vs. 72.7) and Regular Income (84.3 vs. 67.5).

Taiwan (65.7): Taiwanese consumers have become less pessimistic compared to six months ago (56.5) and a year ago (39.4). Consumer sentiments have become more optimistic in almost all indicators compared to six months ago: Economy (73.5 vs. 60.5), Employment (72.1 vs. 57.0), Regular Income (64.3 vs. 47.2) and Quality of Life (49.2 vs. 43.1). They are, however, more pessimistic about the Stock Market (69.6 vs. 74.7).

Thailand (50.6): Thai consumers have become more pessimistic compared to the last six months (55.3), but still more optimistic than a year ago (23.0). Sentiments towards the Economy (52.3 vs. 61.9), Stock Market (51.8 vs. 59.8), Employment (49.5 vs. 56.1) and Quality of Life (36.7 vs. 47.6) have worsened from six months ago, except for Regular Income (62.7 vs. 51.2), which has become more positive.

Vietnam (93.7): The Index score for Vietnam is slightly higher than six months ago (90.0) and significantly so one year ago (60.9). They are the most optimistic across all markets in the Asia/Pacific region. Consumers have become more optimistic across all five indicators compared to six months ago: Quality of Life (95.7 vs. 92.5), Economy (96.2 vs. 92.3), Regular Income (96.0 vs. 91.9), Employment (97.0 vs. 91.3) and the Stock Market (83.6 vs. 82.1).

MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence H2 2010 Market Findings: Middle East Markets

Egypt (45.5): Consumers in Egypt have become more pessimistic compared to the last six months (59.5) but are still more optimistic than a year ago (32.3). Consumer confidence in Egypt has worsened across all economic indicators in terms of outlook towards Regular Income (65.3 vs. 78.1 six months ago), Economy (41.9 vs. 58.1), Quality of Life (39.0 vs. 56.4), the Stock Market (39.8 vs. 54.5) and Employment (41.5 vs. 50.6).

Kuwait (96.9): Consumers in Kuwait have become much more optimistic, with a significant increase in consumer confidence scores from six months ago (70.9) and a year ago (49.5). Consumers have become much more optimistic compared with six months ago in the areas of Regular Income (98.9 vs. 82.0), the Stock Market (94.8 vs. 71.2), Employment (96.2 vs. 71.0), Economy (97.5 vs. 69.4) and Quality of Life (97.3 vs. 61.0).

Lebanon (44.6): Lebanese consumers have become increasingly pessimistic compared to six months ago (55.4) and a year ago (64.4). Consumers are more pessimistic in their outlook towards Quality of Life (43.6 vs. 57.5 six months ago), the Stock Market (45.4 vs. 56.5), Regular Income (49.8 vs. 54.7), Economy (42.6 vs. 54.5) and Employment (41.8 vs. 54.0).

Qatar (65.8): Consumers in Qatar have become much less optimistic than six months ago (89.2) and a year ago (71.4). Compared to six months ago, consumer confidence has improved slightly only towards Employment (85.5 vs. 85.2). On the other hand, consumers are much more pessimistic about the Quality of Life (57.5 vs. 91.8), the Stock Market (49.6 vs. 86.3), Regular Income (47.1 vs. 91.8) and the Economy (89.3 vs. 90.8).

Saudi Arabia (85.0): Saudi Arabia’s Index score has increased from six months ago (83.2) and a year ago (67.1). Consumer confidence in the areas of Regular Income (93.3 vs. 92.3), Economy (86.9 vs. 85.7), Employment (92.2 vs. 85.0) and the Stock Market (66.7 vs. 63.0) has improved from the last six months, except for a decrease in the Quality of Life categrory (86.0 vs. 90.1).

UAE (82.4): Consumers in the UAE have become more pessimistic compared to the last six months (86.1), but still much more optimistic than a year ago (29.6). Consumer sentiments toward the Quality of Life (87.5 vs. 83.7) and Regular Income (86.8 vs. 81.9) have increased compared to six months ago but have decreased for the remaining three economic indicators: the Stock Market (72.6 vs. 89.6), Economy (83.0 vs. 89.4) and Employment (82.4 vs. 86.0).

MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence H2 2010 Market Findings: Africa Markets

Kenya (73.5): Consumers in Kenya have become much more optimistic, with a significant increase in consumer confidence scores from six months ago (47.9), when the survey was first conducted in Kenya. Consumer confidence about Regular Income (88.5 vs. 61.7 six months ago), the Stock Market (73.9 vs. 51.4), the Economy (72.6 vs. 43.5), Employment (65.6 vs. 42.7) and Quality of Life (67.0 vs. 40.1) have all increased.

Morocco (78.2): Consumers in Morocco have become optimistic in the next six months when compared to six months ago (66.1), when the survey was first conducted in Morocco. Moroccan consumers are generally more optimistic across all five economic indicators, Regular Income (90.9 vs. 80.7), the Stock Market (71.9 vs. 64.0), Economy (78.3 vs. 63.1), Quality of Life (72.9 vs. 61.8) and Employment (77.2 vs. 60.8).

Nigeria (83.2): Nigerian consumers are more pessimistic when compared to the last six months (89.4) when they survey was first conducted in Nigeria. Consumers in Nigeria have become less optimistic across all five economic indicators, Regular Income (95.6 vs. 96.6), Quality of Life (85.0 vs. 93.8), Economy (79.4 vs. 90.2), Employment (81.7 vs. 90.0) and the Stock Market (74.4 vs. 76.6).

South Africa (58.6): Consumers in South Africa are less confident about the next six months than they were six months ago (59.8) and a year ago (67.3). South African consumers are less optimistic than six months ago across three economic indicators: Quality of Life (55.8 vs. 56.9 six months ago), Employment (53.2 vs. 53.7) and the Stock Market (55.2 vs. 62.6). The remaining two economic indications, Regular Income (68.3 vs. 66.8) and the Economy (60.4 vs. 59.0), saw slight spikes in confidence.

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