The New Zealand Ministry of Tourism is
forecasting that international visitor arrivals to the country
will grow by an average of 2.5% per annum over the next seven
By 2015 international visitor numbers are forecast
to reach 2.9 million, up by 18.6% or 455,000 more visitors that at
Ministry of Tourism Research Manager, Bruce
Bassett, said that given the substantial impacts of the global
recession and more recently concerns over Swine Flu (Influenza A H1N1), the
forecasts for tourism have been revised back from an annual average growth rate of 4%
which was originally forecast.
"So, while the current forecasts are
lower, the overall outlook for tourism remains very
positive," Mr Bassett said. "Over the balance of 2009,
we expect to see a drop of arrivals of around 4.2%, but after that
we expect to see growth re-emerging."
"With a slow and
uneven recovery from the global recession, we expect to see growth
of around 2.5% in 2010. This will be followed by a solid rebound
in arrivals of 6.5% in 2011 as the global economy further recovers
and with a boost from New Zealandís hosting of the Rugby World
"For the remainder of the forecast
period a sound growth level of 3.5% per year is
expected," he added.
markets over the forecast period are expected to be Australia and
China, which are forecast to provide two-thirds of the total
growth. Other markets are expected to generate more modest growth.
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New Zealand Visitor Arrivals