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According to PATA's Strategic Intelligence Director
John Koldowski, there is some cause for cautious optimism in the tourism
and travel industry across the Asia Pacific region.
The PATA Tourism Forecasts 2009-2011, to be
published this month, suggest growth in international arrivals for
many destinations across the region - despite the global economic
downturn. The Forecasts indicate a very mixed bag of results with
significant variations across Asia Pacific.
"The numbers of international arrivals, from
both within the region and from long-haul source markets, are
expected to remain largely positive - but the strong growth rates
of recent years will prove now to be the exception rather than the
rule," John said.
The PATA Tourism Forecasts publication for
2009-2011 covers visitor arrivals, trends and market share
analysis for over 40 destinations and departure forecasts for 12
Asia Pacific source markets. Tourism receipts for 19 Asia Pacific
destinations are also included.
"There are certainly opportunities for growth
and we are working hard to discover and exploit them with our
members and the industry at large. There is a real battle for
market share across the region. It's a tough time for our industry
and the need for accurate forecasting has never been greater.
We're quite sure that this latest authoritative publication from
PATA will help analysts, planners and business leaders to adapt to
fast-changing market conditions," added John Koldowski.
Highlights include:
South East Asia:
International arrivals will grow to nearly 77 million by 2011
(compared to 62.2 million in 2007) with only Myanmar likely to
record negative growth results.
Northeast Asia:
Mongolia and Macau (SAR) to grow at double digit rates;
international arrivals to reach almost 240 million by 2011 (206
million in 2007).
South Asia: Sri
Lanka to remain in negative territory but the region will benefit
as a whole from an increase in international arrivals to over nine
million by 2011 (7.4 million in 2007).
Americas: Chile
is expected to perform above average with growth forecasted at
4.26 percent. International arrivals by 2011 are forecast to top
106 million (90.2 million in 2007).
PATA Tourism Forecasts are created each year
using proprietary forecasting models under the expert direction of
leading academics Professor Lindsay Turner of Australia's Victoria
University and Professor Stephen Witt of the Hong Kong Polytechnic
University.
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January 2009,
February 2009
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