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The number of tourists visiting European destinations
in 2009 is expected to contract slightly and, given the current economic
environment, things could get worse. However, Europeans earning in euro
who retain their jobs in the economic slump will find non-eurozone
destinations more affordable.
These are the initial findings and predictions
from the ITB World Travel Trends Report 2009, which will be
presented during the world’s leading annual travel show, ITB
Berlin, on 11 March during the Future Day of the ITB Convention,
and will be published before the end of the same month.
The report, produced by IPK International,
suggests that new tourist arrivals records are likely to be broken
2011-2012.
“While Europe’s medium to longer-term inbound
and outbound travel prospects are good,” said Rolf Freitag,
President and CEO of IPK, “the key issue no one can safely predict
is just how deep or prolonged the immediate downturn will be. No
two recessions are alike. So when national economies revive, will
travel immediately pick up, or will there be a time lag?”
IPK says final tourism figures for 2008 are
still being collated. However, after a record year for many
European destinations in 2007, it seems the deterioration in
European economic performance and confidence in Q3 &Q4 2008 will
mean that Europe’s overall inbound growth for 2008 will struggle
to reach 1%.
Nevertheless, some destinations proved very
popular in 2008 and may be in a competitive position to do
reasonably well in 2009.
European Travel Commission data shows that
Bulgaria, Turkey, Latvia and Slovakia recorded double-digit
increases in arrivals for most of 2008. Austria, Croatia, Estonia,
Germany, Ireland, Malta, Montenegro, Sweden and Switzerland were
also doing better than average up to November.
As the economic slump took hold worldwide,
Europe’s appeal faded fastest in longhaul source markets. ETC
estimates suggest that arrivals from the USA, Japan, China and
South Korea were down last year. In contrast, visitors from India
to Europe were not deterred. Some destinations saw double-digit
growth from this market.
2009 indicators for Europe will become a lot
clearer when full year 2008 results are released in the ITB World
Travel Trends Report 2009 in March. However, shifting currency
exchange rates are already clearly impacting travel decisions.
“It seems that destinations in the eurozone are
likely to continue suffering from a strong euro,” said Dr Martin
Buck, Director of the Competence Center Travel & Logistics at
Messe Berlin, which commissions the ongoing research from IPK.
“An emerging trend is for Europeans to divert to
cheaper non-eurozone destinations. Turkey recorded an increase of
about 13% in 2008 and should continue to be a major beneficiary in
2009,” he said.
Initial findings from IPK International’s latest
research, to be published in the World Travel Trends Report 2009,
suggest Europeans are poised to choose destinations closer to
home. “As over 50% of arrivals to all destinations around the
world depend on Europeans, this could be bad news for longhaul
destinations in Asia, the Americas and Africa,” said Mr Freitag.
“The 3% growth in European outbound travel we were seeing in the
first three quarters of last year is likely to evaporate and
probably turn negative in 2009.”
Germany and the UK together account for 35% of
total European outbound trips. Both economies are in recession
with job losses rising. Destinations around the world may have to
look to new European source markets such as Russia, Finland,
Norway and Sweden, which all posted above average outbound growth
for much of 2008.
“When we convene at ITB Berlin in March, the
2009 edition of the ITB World Travel Trends Report will marry
full-year 2008 figures and the latest Q1 economic trends,” said Dr
Buck. “The travel industry will then better know what to expect
from 2009 and beyond. Destinations that adapt their marketing
strategies based on the latest data will feel less pain.”
IPK is currently interviewing outbound
travellers across Europe to try to determine their travel
intentions over the next 12 months, as well as the likely impact
of the current crisis on their travel behaviour. Highlights of the survey results will also be
presented by Rolf Freitag at the ITB Berlin Convention’s Future
Day.
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