Asia Pacific to Account for 41% of Travel

Boeing has forecast that over the next 20 years, Southeast Asia’s airlines will require more that 2,100 new airplanes valued at approximately US$330 billion.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes Vice President of Marketing Randy Tinseth shared the company’s market data and forecast on Tuesday at a media conference focused on the global and Southeast Asia commercial airplane markets. Globally, he said, airlines will need 29,000 new airplanes through 2028, valued at US$3.2 trillion.

“It is encouraging that 27% of our 20-year forecast already is on order,” Tinseth said. “Equally important is that this backlog is well balanced – by type of airplane, by airline business model, and region of the world.”

Tinseth noted that as of the third quarter of 2009, Boeing had a backlog of 3,400 airplanes, valued at US$254 billion.

Airlines and the aviation industry in general have been hurt by a challenging and volatile business environment, Tinseth said. The world economy has been in recession, passenger and cargo traffic have declined and fuel prices are volatile. Global recovery to the 2008 peak won’t occur until perhaps 2010, he said.

“But data indicates that the economic downturn has reached bottom and recovery has begun,” Tinseth said. “However, global recovery will be a long, slow process.”

“In Southeast Asia, air traffic growth will outpace economic growth,” Tinseth said. “Air travel growth over the next 20 years is expected to be above 6.5%, while the region’s economy is projected to grow at 4.6%.”

Looking at the Asia Pacific region in its entirety, long-term annual air traffic growth is projected to be 6.9% over the next 20 years, Tinseth added.

“Travel volumes in Asia Pacific overall are large and growing rapidly,” Tinseth said. “Asia Pacific will account for 41% of travel in 20 years’ time, up from around 32% today. In fact, in less than 10 years, Asia Pacific will easily be the largest air travel market in the world.”

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