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IPK International is forecasting that US
outbound travel will be hit harder in 2009 than inbound travel. IPK will
release extensive details on America’s inbound and outbound travel
performance during the ITB Future Day, March 11, at ITB Berlin.
According to the upcoming ITB World Travel
Trends Report 2009 tourist arrivals growth into the USA was
running at 8% until August 2008. September was flat. While final
figures are still being collated, the report says declining
arrivals in Q4 will drag America’s overall performance for 2008
down from 8% to 6%.
“A figure of 6% is well above
the world average,” said Dr. Martin Buck, Director of the
Competence Center Travel & Logistics at Messe Berlin, which
commissions the ITB World Travel Trends Report. “However, the
abrupt change is worrying as it tells the US travel industry what
to expect in early 2009. Weak demand from foreign markets seems
likely to continue, especially if the dollar stays strong.”
According to official US data, before the abrupt Q4
2008 global economic downturn, European arrivals into America had
been surging ahead at an average of 17%, led by Spain (+36%),
Italy (+29%), France (+28%), the Netherlands (+26%) and Germany
(+20%).
Travel from Asia to the USA, however,
stagnated in 2008, attributable in large part to a 6% decline in
travellers from Japan, the USA’s largest market in Asia.
The contraction in American outbound
travel has been even more severe. Despite a strong start
to 2008, growth in US outbound travel slowed fairly
dramatically in March, and turned negative in June, the
beginning of the outbound slump. By September, the
monthly decline was over 7%.
As Americans reduce their travel, Europeans are being hit the
hardest, according to Dr Buck.
“Europe and other
destinations dependent on travelling Americans need to go on alert
and adjust their strategies,” he said. “What we’re seeing in the
ITB World Travel Trends Report is a continued decline in American
consumer and business confidence combined with higher unemployment
and lower disposable incomes – despite the otherwise positive
Obama effect.”
Dr Buck added, “Americans seem
likely to trade down in terms of destination choice and type of
trip. Business travel, especially travel for meetings and
conventions, is the new weakest link.”
He said that
for leisure travel, the new preference among Americans is to take
shorter trips closer to home. “The destination is almost
irrelevant,” said Dr Buck. “It simply depends on the overall deal
available.”
ITB Berlin 2009 will be taking place from
Wednesday, 11 to Sunday, 15 March, and will be open to trade
visitors from the Wednesday to the Friday. Parallel with the trade
fair, the ITB Berlin Convention will be taking place from
Wednesday, 11 to Saturday, 14 March 2009.
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