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RevPAR to Recover Mid-2010?

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More than 50% of attendees who participated in a survey at STR’s inaugural Hotel Data Conference presented by Magnuson Hotels on 4-5 August believe the industry’s RevPAR will not start to recover until at least the second half of 2010 or after.

“We're encouraged that the majority of attendees think the worst is behind us and they can see a gradual improvement on the horizon,” said Mark Lomanno, president of STR. “Hopefully the attendees are correct in their assessment of a potential recovery. If that is indeed the case, that should mean pricing power for hotels will return in a time frame that will allow for a stronger foundation to be built in the not-too-distant future.”

The survey compiled responses from 88 of the more than 200 conference attendees at the Renaissance Nashville Hotel.

33% of the respondents believe RevPAR will not start to recover until 2011 or beyond, 23.9% believe it will start to recover during third-quarter 2010, and 21.6% believe it will start to recover during fourth-quarter 2010.

According to respondents, 25% believe occupancy will start to recover in the second quarter of 2010. More than one in 10 believe occupancy may take a bit more time to recover and expect an upswing during third-quarter 2010. Other respondents were a bit more optimistic, 20.5% believe occupancy will start to recover in first-quarter 2010.

When asked when average daily rate will start to recover, 34.1% of respondents believe ADR recovery won’t start until 2011 or beyond, 30.7% believe it will start to recover in fourth-quarter 2010, and 15.9% believe it will start during third-quarter 2010.

Looking back at the January 2008 rates, 50.6% of the respondents believe it will take three to five years to reach those rates again, followed by 24.1% who believe it will take six to eight years.

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