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Retail sales across
Asia Pacific are expected to show continued growth on the back of a strong consumer confidence sentiment for the first
half of 2008, according to the latest MasterCard Worldwide Index of Retail released by MasterCard
Worldwide.
While the forecast is for positive expansion across all the 12
Asia Pacific markets, China maintains its lead with retail sales anticipated to
reach 4743 billion yuan, representing a 12.8% year on year growth. Other markets with strong growth include Indonesia (12.6% vs. 4.6% in
1H2007) and Hong Kong (10.5% vs. 3.2% in 1H2007), both observing a significant increase in
the year on year growth rate of 8% and 7.3% respectively when compared to the same period
last year.
“The global economic turmoil will inevitably affect Asia in 2008, however. The real test is to
what extent Asian economies will be able to continue to drive growth with domestic demand;
and thereby maintaining a steady pace of healthy retail sales,”
observed Dr. Yuwa Hedrick
Wong, economic advisor, MasterCard Worldwide.
Markets remaining less bullish include Taiwan, New Zealand and Japan, with a year on year
growth expected to reach 2.9%, 2.4% and 0.7% respectively.
“Taiwan’s weak retail sales expectation is a reflection of poor consumer sentiments, with
uncertainty being made worse as a result of the coming elections. Japan is experiencing a
cyclical downturn, which has clearly affected consumer spending. And, in New Zealand while
the momentum of economic growth is slowing rapidly, interest rates are rising, which in turn are
affecting retail sales,” Dr. Hedrick-Wong added.
| The MasterCard Worldwide Index of Retail’s forecast for the first half of 2008 |
|
Retail Sales |
Forecast Year on Year Growth |
| Australia* |
A$100.2 billion |
4.50% |
| China*** |
4743 billion yuan |
12.80% |
|
Hong Kong* |
HK$126.7 billion |
10.50% |
| Indonesia*** |
243.6 trillion rupiah |
12.60% |
| Japan* |
59.2 trillion yen |
0.70% |
| Korea* |
77.6 trillion won |
8.20% |
| Malaysia*** |
40.5 billion ringgit |
6.70% |
| (*excludes hospitality, catering and auto sales) |
| (**excludes hospitality and catering, includes auto sales) |
| (*** includes wholesale, hospitality, catering, auto sales) |
Conducted twice a year in June and December, the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Retail was
launched in June 2003 by MasterCard as part of the company's knowledge leadership initiatives
in Asia Pacific. Combining 10 years of retail sales data, factoring in the secular trend of
growth of the retail industry, and using the MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence as
an independent variable, the Index provides six-month forecasts of retail sales growth in 12
markets: Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New
Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.
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