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The International Air Transport Association
(IATA) has released cargo and passenger traffic forecasts for 2004-2008 indicating
a 6% growth annually for international passengers and 6% annually for international cargo tonnage.
"It looks like we will finish 2004 with the strongest traffic rebound that the industry has seen since the 1991
recovery from the effects of the Gulf War. Expectations for the rest of the forecast period are in line with
historical industry trends. If nothing changes in the operating environment, this is the start of a good news story
for the industry," said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's Director General and CEO.
Passenger numbers for 2004 are expected to grow by 11% over 2003 (14% if measured in revenue passenger
kilometers). While this phenomenal growth is largely related to a recovery from the disastrous impact of SARS in
2003, two underlying factors are important. First, the robust economic expansion is the strongest in three
decades and second, increasing liberalization and intense competition in many markets is driving growth with
declining yields.
China and India will be the main engines of growth for passenger traffic. International markets within Asia Pacific
are expected to grow at 8.3% over the forecast period. Europe-Middle East growth, while from a much smaller
base, will also be exceptional at 7.7% reflecting rapid expansion plans by Middle Eastern carriers.
Freight will also see double-digit growth in 2004, increasing 10.1%. The 6.0% freight growth forecasted through
2008 relies heavily on Asia-Pacific with markets linked to China and India expected to growth most rapidly.
Europe to Asia-Pacific will be the fastest growing market with 7.0% annual growth. Traffic within Asia Pacific and
between the Middle East and Europe will also be above the global average at 6.1%.
"Strong traffic growth is only half the story. Damaged balance sheets from four successive years of record
losses totally in US$35 billion and three years of lost growth will take more than a rebound in traffic to repair.
Structural change is essential to return the industry to health," said
Bisignani.
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