Boeing forecasts that air carriers in North
America will take delivery of about 7,200 new airplanes over the
next 20 years at an investment of $700 billion.
deliveries in Canada and the United States will be driven largely
by the need to retire older, less fuel-efficient single-aisle
airplanes and regional jets, as airlines replace them with
new-generation, more fuel-efficient models. For the Boeing
forecast, the North America market consists of the U.S. and
Canada. Mexico is included in Boeing's forecast for Latin America.
"North America is a large, mature market, and we
expect passenger traffic for the region to grow at a modest rate
of 3.4%," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing,
Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The fast-paced
lifestyles in Canada and the U.S. require rapid, frequent and
reliable coast-to-coast and interregional transportation. Driven
by this demand, nearly three-quarters of the new deliveries over
the next 20 years will be single-aisle airplanes."
retirements of airplanes into account, the North America fleet
will grow from 6,590 airplanes today to about 9,000 airplanes by
Boeing forecasts that single-aisle airplanes will
grow from 56% of the total North America fleet today to 71% of the fleet by 2029. Airlines are increasingly focusing
on airplane age as fuel-thirsty, older airplanes weigh
increasingly on earnings. Increased attention to aviation's impact
on global climate change also will be a factor in selecting
airplanes that produce lower carbon emissions.
airplane types offer significant
advantages in environmental performance as well as improved
capabilities, fuel efficiency and maintenance costs.
several years of losses among the region's air carriers, we're
seeing signs of improvement and airlines are beginning to
implement fleet renewal plans as they look to the future," Tinseth
added. "To help meet this demand, Boeing Commercial Airplanes will
continue to work closely with our more than 500 suppliers and
partners in Canada. Boeing imports parts and services from Canada
amounting to more than a billion U.S. dollars a year, more than
$625 million of which is associated with Boeing Commercial
Twin-aisle fleets will evolve in the region as
airlines continue to expand international point-to-point services
to a wider range of airport pairs and frequencies. Small and
mid-sized twin-aisle airplanes will grow to represent 19%
of the North America fleet by 2029.
Within the North
America market, Boeing sees a demand for 1,180 new, efficient
twin-aisle airplanes such as the
787 Dreamliner. Twin-aisles will
account for only 16% of total airplane demand in the region
over 20 years but will have a proportionally higher share of
delivery cost, at 37% of the overall investment.
Boeing does not believe large airplanes (747-size and larger) will see significant
demand in North America, with only about 40 units (all
freighters), or one percent of the total investment.
also forecasts declining demand for regional jets in North America
as airlines shift to more fuel-efficient turboprops or larger
jetliner models. High fuel prices, intensified competition and the
superior efficiencies of larger single-aisles will take a toll on
the economics of small regional jets. This category will account
for just 4% of the total investment for new airplanes, with
only 800 new regional jet deliveries over the next 20 years,
nearly all for replacement.
See other recent news regarding: