Some 25,000 new passenger and freighter aircraft
valued at US$3.1 trillion will be delivered from 2009 to 2028,
according to Airbus' latest Global Market Forecast.
Emerging economies, evolving airline networks,
expansion of low cost carriers and the increasing number of
mega-cities as well as traffic growth and the replacement of older
less efficient aircraft with more eco-efficient airliners are
factors driving the demand for new aircraft.
In 2009, a decline in Revenue
Passenger Kilometres (RPK's) of 2% is expected to be
followed by a rise of 4.6% in 2010.
anticipates that in the next 20 years, passenger traffic RPK's
will remain resilient to the cyclical effects of the sector and
increase by 4.7% per year or double in the next 15 years.
This will require a demand for almost 24,100 new passenger
aircraft valued at US$2.9 trillion. With the replacement of some
10,000 older passenger aircraft, the world's passenger aircraft
fleet of 100 seats or more will double from some 14,000 today.
Airfreight tonne kilometres (FTKs) is forecast to increasing
annually by 5.2%. Combined with fleet renewal, this
creates a demand for some 3,440 freighters. More than 850 of these
are new aircraft valued at US$210 billion, with the remainder
converted from passenger aircraft.
"Air transportation is
a growth industry, and an essential ingredient in the world
economy," said Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers John
Leahy. "Technology and innovation are key drivers for an
eco-efficient aviation sector, and Airbus is at the forefront of
Aviation also benefits individuals in every region
of the world, with the number growing as aviation prospers. Oxford
Economics predicts that in 20 years time, air transport will
directly employ 8.5 million people worldwide and contribute US$1
trillion annually to world GDP. Tourism and indirect benefits are
The greatest demand for passenger aircraft
will be from airlines in Asia Pacific and emerging markets. The
region that includes the People's Republic of China and India
accounts for 31% of the total, followed by Europe (25%) and North America (23%). In terms of domestic
passenger markets, India (10%) and China (7.9%)
will have the fastest growth over the next 20 years. The largest
by volume of traffic, will remain domestic US.
growth, increased frequencies, cost reduction, environmental
responsibilities and airport congestion are increasingly
influencing airlines to capitalise on the benefits of larger
aircraft, particularly within aircraft families by minimising
training and maintenance costs.
For example, in the US in
2007, airlines wasted 740 million gallons of fuel in congestion
delays, equivalent to 32,000 London to New York flights. Bigger
aircraft with reduced CO2 emissions are a solution. In the last 10
years aircraft have increased in size by 3% and Airbus
predicts that by 2028, the average aircraft will be 26% bigger than today.
Not surprisingly, Airbus also foresees demand for Very Large
Aircraft (VLA) seating more than 400 passengers, like the
above 1,700. Valued at US$571 billion, this represents 19%
by value of passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries, or 7% of aircraft units. Of these, nearly 1,318 will be needed
to link the world's most dynamic destination 'mega' cities, which
are steadily increasing in number and size. This inevitably leads
to a greater concentration of traffic. More than 50% of
the world’s VLA's will be operated by airlines in the Asia Pacific
In the twin-aisle aircraft segment (seating from
250 to 400 passengers), some 6,250 new passenger and freighter
aircraft will be delivered in the next 20 years, valued at some
US$1,300 billion, or 42% by value, 25% by units.
Of these, 4,240 aircraft will be small twin-aisle (250 to 300 seater) and about 2,010 intermediate twin aisles (350 to 400
seater). These segments are covered by the A330/A340 family. From
2013, the A350 XWB family will cover the entire spectrum of twin
aisle market requirements.
In the single-aisle segment,
almost 17,000 aircraft worth some US$1,200 billion or 39%
by value, 68% by units, will be delivered in the next 20
years. This is an increase over previous forecasts due to the
emergence of low-cost carriers and increased route liberalisation
and an accelerating demand for single aisle aircraft in Asia.
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